Blog IICA

Evidences

38 results

Community alert prevented deaths

22/09/2026 Go to Evidence

19 people, mostly women farmers, operate the Community Hydroclimatic Monitoring Network in southern Ahuachapán, El Salvador; during Tropical Storm Julia, an alert issued after more than six hours of rain enabled vulnerable families to evacuate two hours before the rivers overflowed, with no loss of life.

Paz Cardona (2026)

Paz Cardona, A. (2026, 22 de septiembre). Comunidades latinoamericanas se apropian de los datos científicos para sobrevivir a la crisis climática. Agencia Ocote. https://www.agenciaocote.com/blog/2026/09/22/datos-climaticos-comunitarios-sobrevivir-crisis-climatica/

High chance of below-normal rainfall

03/09/2026 Go to Evidence

>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.

National Weather Service San Juan (2026).

National Weather Service San Juan. (2026, September 3). Drought Information Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SJU&product=DGT&site=NWS

62%: Extraordinary Coastal El Niño

28/08/2026 Go to Evidence

62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.

ENFEN (2026)

Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145

58%: Very strong El Niño in Niño 3.4

28/08/2026 Go to Evidence

58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.

ENFEN (2026)

Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145

43%: Extraordinary Coastal El Niño in summer

28/08/2026 Go to Evidence

43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.

ENFEN (2026)

Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145

Four countries exposed in the Dry Corridor

26/07/2026 Go to Evidence

4 Central American countries, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, contain extensive areas of the Dry Corridor exposed to prolonged droughts and extreme rainfall associated with El Niño.

AgroLatam.com (2026)

AgroLatam.com. (2026, 26 de julio). ¿El Niño llevará al agro de Centroamérica a una crisis alimentaria? https://www.agrolatam.com/agricultura-latam/el-nino-crisis-alimentaria-centroamerica-onu-alerta-agro/

Four rainless weeks destroy crops

26/07/2026 Go to Evidence

4 weeks without rainfall were enough to destroy staple crop plantings in agricultural communities in Guatemala and El Salvador, worsening food insecurity risks.

AgroLatam.com (2026)

AgroLatam.com. (2026, 26 de julio). ¿El Niño llevará al agro de Centroamérica a una crisis alimentaria? https://www.agrolatam.com/agricultura-latam/el-nino-crisis-alimentaria-centroamerica-onu-alerta-agro/

87.5 million affected by climate

02/07/2026 Go to Evidence

87.5 million people were affected in contexts where extreme weather events predominated as the main driver of acute food insecurity.

FAO, WFP y GNAFC (2026)

FAO, WFP, & GNAFC. (2026). 2026 Global Report on Food Crises: Joint analysis for better decisions. Rome: FAO & WFP. https://www.wfp.org/publications/global-report-food-crises-grfc