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Monitoring, Evaluation and Best Practices

Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies

Evidences

7 results

75% chance of a historic El Niño

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.

Henríquez (2026)

Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Niño Region 3.4
Sector: Environment and natural resources
Area: Agrifood Context

Over 90% chance of a very strong El Niño

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.

Henríquez (2026)

Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Niño Region 3.4 Chile
Sector: Environment and natural resources
Area: Agrifood Context

Niño 3.4 reached +1.8 °C in August

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.

Henríquez (2026)

Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Niño Region 3.4
Sector: Environment and natural resources
Area: Agrifood Context

58%: Very strong El Niño in Niño 3.4

28/08/2026 Go to Evidence

58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.

ENFEN (2026)

Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Niño Region 3.4
Sector: Aquaculture and fishery products Environment and natural resources
Area: Agrifood Context
Instrument: Early warning systems
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers

El Niño settled in region 3-4

19/06/2026 Go to Evidence

Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.

ABC Color (2026)

ABC Color. (2026, 19 de junio). El Niño en Paraguay: recomendaciones del MAG para proteger la producción agrícola. ABC Color. https://www.abc.com.py/negocios/abc-campo/2026/06/19/el-nino-en-paraguay-recomendaciones-del-mag-para-proteger-la-produccion-agricola/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Paraguay Niño Region 3.4
Sector: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery products Agri-Food (total) Environment and natural resources
Area: Agrifood Context Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture
Instrument: Early warning systems Collect, analyze, disseminate and exchange data and information between countries Situation and prospective analysis (regional or international)
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Public institutions
Result: Information generation Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation

El Niño exceeds ocean threshold

11/06/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.

AccuWeather (2026)

AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Niño Region 3.4 World (aggregate)
Sector: Environment and natural resources Agri-Food (total)
Area: Agrifood Context Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture
Result: Information generation Risk mitigation

Super El Niño risk

11/06/2026 Go to Evidence

30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.

AccuWeather (2026)

AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Droughts Floods
Country: World (aggregate) Niño Region 3.4
Sector: Environment and natural resources Agri-Food (total)
Area: Agrifood Context Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture
Result: Risk mitigation Impact: Climate risk resilience Information generation Impact: Food and nutritional security