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>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
National Weather Service San Juan (2026).
National Weather Service San Juan. (2026, September 3). Drought Information Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SJU&product=DGT&site=NWS
The entire U.S. Virgin Islands territory was classified in Extreme Drought (D3) as of July 21, 2026. Lack of rainfall was causing cracked soils, vegetation stress, depleted ponds, and water-access difficulties for residents and farmers.
National Integrated Drought Information System (2026)
National Integrated Drought Information System. (2026, July 23). Drought update for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Drought.gov. https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-update-puerto-rico-and-us-virgin-islands-2026-07-23