Evidences
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From October 5 to 11, 2026, every region of Costa Rica is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall. The IMN estimates an extreme-event probability of about 20%, although it reports high uncertainty for this final week of the outlook.
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica (2026)
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica. (2026). Pronóstico subestacional: válido del 14 de septiembre al 11 de octubre de 2026. https://www.imn.ac.cr/busqueda?_101_assetEntryId=564589&_101_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_type=content&_101_urlTitle=contenido-pronostico-subestacional&p_p_id=101&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_mode=view&p_p_state=maximized
19 people, mostly women farmers, operate the Community Hydroclimatic Monitoring Network in southern Ahuachapán, El Salvador; during Tropical Storm Julia, an alert issued after more than six hours of rain enabled vulnerable families to evacuate two hours before the rivers overflowed, with no loss of life.
Paz Cardona (2026)
Paz Cardona, A. (2026, 22 de septiembre). Comunidades latinoamericanas se apropian de los datos científicos para sobrevivir a la crisis climática. Agencia Ocote. https://www.agenciaocote.com/blog/2026/09/22/datos-climaticos-comunitarios-sobrevivir-crisis-climatica/
1.7 million new internal displacements caused by disasters were recorded in 2024 in Brazil, Cuba, Colombia, Haiti and Ecuador alone, according to the 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement cited by the source.
Paz Cardona (2026)
Paz Cardona, A. (2026, 22 de septiembre). Comunidades latinoamericanas se apropian de los datos científicos para sobrevivir a la crisis climática. Agencia Ocote. https://www.agenciaocote.com/blog/2026/09/22/datos-climaticos-comunitarios-sobrevivir-crisis-climatica/
83% of disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean are related to climate hazards, but only 6% of the regional risk-management budget is allocated to preventing future risks and 16% to reducing existing risks.
Paz Cardona (2026)
Paz Cardona, A. (2026, 22 de septiembre). Comunidades latinoamericanas se apropian de los datos científicos para sobrevivir a la crisis climática. Agencia Ocote. https://www.agenciaocote.com/blog/2026/09/22/datos-climaticos-comunitarios-sobrevivir-crisis-climatica/
100 km east of Guadeloupe, large sargassum banks are located, contained by the Antilles Current and moving very slowly; more significant arrivals are possible during the second of the next two weeks.
Météo-France (s. f.)
Météo-France. (s. f.). Sargasses. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/sargasses
4/5 is the confidence index for the forecast of scattered sargassum arrivals over the next four days in Guadeloupe, Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy, with greater frequency near Petit Cul-de-Sac.
Météo-France (s. f.)
Météo-France. (s. f.). Sargasses. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/sargasses
35.5% of capacity was recorded at Mona Reservoir on September 16, 2026, a water supply source for Kingston and St. Andrew.
National Water Commission (2026)
National Water Commission. (2026, September 16). Daily reservoir levels. https://enterpriseregistration.nwcjamaica.com/reservoir.php
39.8% of capacity was recorded at Hermitage Dam on September 16, 2026, a water supply source for Kingston and St. Andrew.
National Water Commission (2026)
National Water Commission. (2026, September 16). Daily reservoir levels. https://enterpriseregistration.nwcjamaica.com/reservoir.php
During the four weeks from September 14 to October 11, 2026, the IMN forecasts below-normal rainfall in Costa Rica's Pacific region, Central Valley, and Western Northern Zone. The pattern is expected to be associated with El Niño and stronger-than-usual trade winds.
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica (2026)
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica. (2026). Pronóstico subestacional: válido del 14 de septiembre al 11 de octubre de 2026. https://www.imn.ac.cr/busqueda?_101_assetEntryId=564589&_101_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_type=content&_101_urlTitle=contenido-pronostico-subestacional&p_p_id=101&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_mode=view&p_p_state=maximized
Between 30 and 155 mm of rain could accumulate in Costa Rica's Northern Zone from September 14 to 20, 2026, the highest forecast range among the country's regions. The probability of an extreme event is low, at about 25%, and forecast uncertainty is also low.
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica (2026)
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica. (2026). Pronóstico subestacional: válido del 14 de septiembre al 11 de octubre de 2026. https://www.imn.ac.cr/busqueda?_101_assetEntryId=564589&_101_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_type=content&_101_urlTitle=contenido-pronostico-subestacional&p_p_id=101&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_mode=view&p_p_state=maximized
