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Evidences

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43%: Extraordinary Coastal El Niño in summer

28/08/2026 Go to Evidence

43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.

ENFEN (2026)

Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145

58%: Very strong El Niño in Niño 3.4

28/08/2026 Go to Evidence

58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.

ENFEN (2026)

Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145

62%: Extraordinary Coastal El Niño

28/08/2026 Go to Evidence

62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.

ENFEN (2026)

Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145

Food prices nearly 90% above average

Nearly 90% above the five-year average is the level at which staple food prices remain in Haiti. Although inflation slowed slightly and some fuel prices declined, insecurity along major road corridors continues to raise logistics and marketing costs and constrain very poor households' economic access to food.

FEWS NET (2026)

FEWS NET. (2026). Haiti Key Message Update July 2026–January 2027: Conflict and elevated prices continue to restrict access to food in Haïti. https://fews.net/latin-america-and-caribbean/haiti/key-message-update/july-2026

Violence displaced 5,840 people

Approximately 5,840 people from 1,836 households were displaced by the expansion of armed groups into Kenscoff in early July 2026; 86% are being hosted by host families. Insecurity in this horticultural area is limiting access to agricultural land, reducing planted area, disrupting harvests, and constraining fresh produce supplies to Port-au-Prince.

FEWS NET (2026)

FEWS NET. (2026). Haiti Key Message Update July 2026–January 2027: Conflict and elevated prices continue to restrict access to food in Haïti. https://fews.net/latin-america-and-caribbean/haiti/key-message-update/july-2026

Crisis food insecurity remains widespread

From July 2026 to January 2027, FEWS NET projects widespread Crisis, IPC Phase 3, outcomes across Haiti, while some households will continue to face Emergency, IPC Phase 4, outcomes in the worst-affected areas. The most severe conditions are expected at internally displaced person sites in the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area, Lower Artibonite, and some communes of Centre and Nord-Ouest.

FEWS NET (2026)

FEWS NET. (2026). Haiti Key Message Update July 2026–January 2027: Conflict and elevated prices continue to restrict access to food in Haïti. https://fews.net/latin-america-and-caribbean/haiti/key-message-update/july-2026

National reservoirs at 66.57%

22/08/2026 Go to Evidence

66.57% was represented by the 1,343.89 million cubic meters of water stored in Dominican Republic reservoirs on August 21, 2026, according to INDRHI data.

Granero del Sur (2026).

Granero del Sur. (2026, 22 de agosto). Fenómeno atmosférico El Niño afecta RD, baja el nivel de las presas. https://elgranerodelsur.com/2026/08/22/fenomeno-atmosferico-el-nino-rd-afecta-rd-baja-el-nivel-de-las-presas/