129 results
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). El Niño 2026 confirmé comme un épisode exceptionnel. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/el-nino-2026-confirme-comme-un-episode-exceptionnel
The strengthening El Nino across Central America - on track to be one of the strongest events since 1950 in 2026 - has driven Guatemala's worst drought of the season: 52 consecutive days without rain that have already caused crop losses in 138 of the country's municipalities, according to the Executive Secretariat for Disaster Reduction (SE-CONRED), reported at CONASAN's extraordinary meeting on August 28, 2026.
SESAN Guatemala - CONASAN (2026)
Secretaria de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional (SESAN). (2026, August 28). CONASAN en alerta: sequia pone en riesgo cultivos, agua y economia familiar. https://portal.sesan.gob.gt/2026/08/28/conasan-en-alerta-sequia-pone-en-riesgo-cultivos-agua-y-economia-familiar/
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). El Niño 2026 confirmé comme un épisode exceptionnel. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/el-nino-2026-confirme-comme-un-episode-exceptionnel
The drought that El Nino is intensifying across Central America has left 236,447 Guatemalan families affected, according to the National Food and Nutrition Security Council (CONASAN), reported at its extraordinary meeting on August 28, 2026, which is evaluating raising the alert level to orange or red to activate the National Response Plan.
SESAN Guatemala - CONASAN (2026)
Secretaria de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional (SESAN). (2026, August 28). CONASAN en alerta: sequia pone en riesgo cultivos, agua y economia familiar. https://portal.sesan.gob.gt/2026/08/28/conasan-en-alerta-sequia-pone-en-riesgo-cultivos-agua-y-economia-familiar/
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
ENFEN (2026)
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145
58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
ENFEN (2026)
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
ENFEN (2026)
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145
54.5% was the rainfall deficit recorded in the Dominican Republic in June 2026; the deficit was 46.0% in May and 45.3% in July, according to an Indomet report.
Granero del Sur (2026).
Granero del Sur. (2026, 22 de agosto). Fenómeno atmosférico El Niño afecta RD, baja el nivel de las presas. https://elgranerodelsur.com/2026/08/22/fenomeno-atmosferico-el-nino-rd-afecta-rd-baja-el-nivel-de-las-presas/
66.57% was represented by the 1,343.89 million cubic meters of water stored in Dominican Republic reservoirs on August 21, 2026, according to INDRHI data.
Granero del Sur (2026).
Granero del Sur. (2026, 22 de agosto). Fenómeno atmosférico El Niño afecta RD, baja el nivel de las presas. https://elgranerodelsur.com/2026/08/22/fenomeno-atmosferico-el-nino-rd-afecta-rd-baja-el-nivel-de-las-presas/
68% was the reduction in output from the Haina-Manoguayabo aqueduct; output from the Isabela aqueduct fell 65%, while the Isa-Mana and Duey systems fell by more than 60%.
Granero del Sur (2026).
Granero del Sur. (2026, 22 de agosto). Fenómeno atmosférico El Niño afecta RD, baja el nivel de las presas. https://elgranerodelsur.com/2026/08/22/fenomeno-atmosferico-el-nino-rd-afecta-rd-baja-el-nivel-de-las-presas/