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Monitoring, Evaluation and Best Practices

Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies

Evidences

80 results

Anchovy could fall 70%

20/06/2026 Go to Evidence

70% is the potential decline in northern anchovy catch during an El Niño year, according to the estimate cited by Sonapesca.

Badal (2026)

Badal, I. (2026, 20 de junio). La amenaza productiva del “Súper Niño”. La Tercera. https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/la-amenaza-productiva-del-super-nino/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Chile
Sector: Aquaculture and fishery products Agriculture, forestry, and fishery products
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Early warning systems Studies and diagnoses
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Value Chains
Result: Risk mitigation Improved productivity Cost Reduction

Brazil mobilizes 20 ministries

20/06/2026 Go to Evidence

20 Brazilian government ministries were coordinated to implement preventive and response measures against the potential impacts of El Niño on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and vulnerable populations.

OPSAa (2026)

OPSAa. (2026, 20 de junio). Brasil moviliza 20 ministerios para enfrentar el impacto de El Niño. https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-2787-brasil-moviliza-20-ministerios-para-enfrentar-el-impacto-de-el-nino

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Droughts Floods
Country: Brazil
Sector: Multisectoral Agri-Food (total)
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Intersectoral and interinstitucional coordination Strategies, plans, policies or guidelines; sectoral or national Early warning systems Strategic planning
Beneficiary: Public institutions Agricultural producers Rural communities
Result: Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation Institutional capacity building Improved public policy formulation and implementation

Cherries lost 25%

20/06/2026 Go to Evidence

25% of cherry production was lost during the 2023-24 El Niño, especially in early varieties, according to the source.

Badal (2026)

Badal, I. (2026, 20 de junio). La amenaza productiva del “Súper Niño”. La Tercera. https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/la-amenaza-productiva-del-super-nino/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Floods
Country: Chile
Sector: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery products Fruit and vegetables, includes roots and tubers
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Early warning systems Studies and diagnoses
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Family agriculture
Result: Risk mitigation Improved productivity Profitability

Very strong El Niño reaches 63%

20/06/2026 Go to Evidence

63% is the estimated probability of a very strong El Niño between November and January, according to NOAA’s mathematical model cited by the source.

Badal (2026)

Badal, I. (2026, 20 de junio). La amenaza productiva del “Súper Niño”. La Tercera. https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/la-amenaza-productiva-del-super-nino/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Chile
Sector: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery products Aquaculture and fishery products Environment and natural resources
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Early warning systems Studies and diagnoses
Beneficiary: Public institutions Agricultural producers Family agriculture
Result: Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation Information generation

El Niño impact expected from September

19/06/2026 Go to Evidence

September onward is the period when Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock expects El Niño could have a significant impact, coinciding with the start of the rainy season.

ABC Color (2026)

ABC Color. (2026, 19 de junio). El Niño en Paraguay: recomendaciones del MAG para proteger la producción agrícola. ABC Color. https://www.abc.com.py/negocios/abc-campo/2026/06/19/el-nino-en-paraguay-recomendaciones-del-mag-para-proteger-la-produccion-agricola/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Floods
Country: Paraguay
Sector: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery products Agri-Food (total) Environment and natural resources
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Early warning systems Studies and diagnoses Education and awareness building
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Family agriculture
Result: Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation Information generation

El Niño settled in region 3-4

19/06/2026 Go to Evidence

Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.

ABC Color (2026)

ABC Color. (2026, 19 de junio). El Niño en Paraguay: recomendaciones del MAG para proteger la producción agrícola. ABC Color. https://www.abc.com.py/negocios/abc-campo/2026/06/19/el-nino-en-paraguay-recomendaciones-del-mag-para-proteger-la-produccion-agricola/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Paraguay Niño Region 3.4
Sector: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery products Agri-Food (total) Environment and natural resources
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Early warning systems Collect, analyze, disseminate and exchange data and information between countries Situation and prospective analysis (regional or international)
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Public institutions
Result: Information generation Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation

Extreme rains could reach 200 mm

19/06/2026 Go to Evidence

200 millimeters of rain in a single day may occur during localized extreme events associated with El Niño in Paraguay, creating problems for production.

ABC Color (2026)

ABC Color. (2026, 19 de junio). El Niño en Paraguay: recomendaciones del MAG para proteger la producción agrícola. ABC Color. https://www.abc.com.py/negocios/abc-campo/2026/06/19/el-nino-en-paraguay-recomendaciones-del-mag-para-proteger-la-produccion-agricola/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Floods
Country: Paraguay
Sector: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery products Agri-Food (total) Environment and natural resources
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Early warning systems Studies and diagnoses
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Family agriculture
Result: Risk mitigation Impact: Climate risk resilience Strengthened water resources management

Super El Niño risk

11/06/2026 Go to Evidence

30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.

AccuWeather (2026)

AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Droughts Floods
Country: World (aggregate) Niño Region 3.4
Sector: Environment and natural resources Agri-Food (total)
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture Agrifood Context
Result: Risk mitigation Impact: Climate risk resilience Information generation Impact: Food and nutritional security

Fewer Atlantic named storms

11/06/2026 Go to Evidence

11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.

AccuWeather (2026)

AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Hurricanes
Country: World (aggregate) United States America, North (aggregate)
Sector: Environment and natural resources Agri-Food (total)
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Result: Risk mitigation Information generation

El Niño exceeds ocean threshold

11/06/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.

AccuWeather (2026)

AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Niño Region 3.4 World (aggregate)
Sector: Environment and natural resources Agri-Food (total)
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Result: Information generation Risk mitigation