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+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
13 eastern Caribbean territories experienced some degree of dryness during July 2026: Tobago, Barbados, St Thomas, St Vincent, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, St Maarten, Guadeloupe, St Kitts, Antigua, St Croix and Anguilla.
Caribbean Regional Climate Centre (2026).
Caribbean Regional Climate Centre. (2026, September 4). SPI Monitor July 2026. https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/recent/
>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
National Weather Service San Juan (2026).
National Weather Service San Juan. (2026, September 3). Drought Information Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SJU&product=DGT&site=NWS
Nearly 100% is the probability that El Niño will persist during September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027, according to seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts.
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (2026)
Organización Meteorológica Mundial. (2026, September 3). El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026). https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/august-2026
Before the end of 2026, El Niño is forecast to reach very strong intensity and peak toward the close of the year. WMO forecasts do not anticipate ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña during the outlook period.
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (2026)
Organización Meteorológica Mundial. (2026, September 3). El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026). https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/august-2026
415.8 mm was the average accumulated precipitation in French Guiana from June through August 2026, the lowest total for that period since 1967 and equivalent to a 36% deficit, calculated using 13 reference stations.
Météo-France Guyane (2026).
Météo-France Guyane. (2026, September 2). Prévisions saisonnières de septembre à novembre 2026. https://meteofrance.gf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-de-septembre-novembre-2026
67% was the precipitation deficit recorded in French Guiana during August 2026, following deficits of 49% in July and 17% in June.
Météo-France Guyane (2026).
Météo-France Guyane. (2026, September 2). Prévisions saisonnières de septembre à novembre 2026. https://meteofrance.gf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-de-septembre-novembre-2026
2.65 metres was the observed level of the Paraguay River at the Pilar station on 31 August 2026.
Dirección de Meteorología e Hidrología (2026).
Dirección de Meteorología e Hidrología. (2026, agosto 31). Informe hidrometeorológico conjunto del río Paraguay. https://www.meteorologia.gov.py/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Boletin_hidrologico_31ago2026.pdf