Blog IICA

Evidences

205 results

Possible impact of El Niño on GDP (Peru)

20/03/2026 Go to Evidence

It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (20 de marzo de 2026). Reporte de inflación - Marzo 2026.

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Heat stress

01/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia face an average of 144 days a year with heat that is harmful to coffee, almost four months under heat stress (El País, 2026).

El País. (2026, febrero 18). El cambio climático también va por el café: Los días de calor que afectan sus cultivos se disparan en Brasil, Colombia y otros países productores. https://elpais.com/america-futura/2026-02-18/el-cambio-climatico-tambien-va-por-el-cafe-los-dias-de-calor-que-afectan-sus-cultivos-se-disparan-en-brasil-colombia-y-otros-paises-productores.html

El País. https://elpais.com/

Agri, forestry and fishing: 11.3% of GDP

11.3% of Guyana's GDP came from agriculture, forestry and fishing in 2023, compared with an average of 12.6% for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Global Green Growth Institute, 2026, p. 13

Global Green Growth Institute. (2026). Guyana's National Drainage and Irrigation Strategy 2030: Enhancing decision making for a resilient, efficient, and sustainable drainage and irrigation system in Guyana.

Over 50% of Region 5 faces flood risk

More than 50% of Guyana's Region 5 is exposed to flood risk, including 29% of its populated and agricultural land.

Global Green Growth Institute, 2026, p. 13-14

Global Green Growth Institute. (2026). Guyana's National Drainage and Irrigation Strategy 2030: Enhancing decision making for a resilient, efficient, and sustainable drainage and irrigation system in Guyana.

Temperature increase

02/12/2025 Go to Evidence

1.5°C was the temperature increase limit reaffirmed at COP27 (CAF, 2023).

CAF, 2023

Pupo Roncallo, O. R., & González Quiroga, A. (2023). Transición energética y descarbonización en América Latina y el Caribe en industrias de alto consumo energético (Policy Paper N.º 27). CAF – Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina. https://scioteca.caf.com/bitstream/handle/123456789/2268/Policy%20Paper%20N%C2%B027_Transici%C3%B3n%20energ%C3%A9tica%20y%20descarbonizaci%C3%B3n%20en%20ALC%20en%20industrias%20de%20dificil%20descarbonizacion.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y

CO2 generation

02/12/2025 Go to Evidence

The industrial sector generates 9 Gt/year of CO2 globally (CAF, 2023).

CAF, 2023

Pupo Roncallo, O. R., & González Quiroga, A. (2023). Transición energética y descarbonización en América Latina y el Caribe en industrias de alto consumo energético (Policy Paper N.º 27). CAF – Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina. https://scioteca.caf.com/bitstream/handle/123456789/2268/Policy%20Paper%20N%C2%B027_Transici%C3%B3n%20energ%C3%A9tica%20y%20descarbonizaci%C3%B3n%20en%20ALC%20en%20industrias%20de%20dificil%20descarbonizacion.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y

Record global temperature in 2024 and impacts on P

20/11/2025 Go to Evidence

20.29 °C was the global average temperature recorded in 2024, with an anomaly of +1.18 °C (SENAMHI, 2024). This thermal increase is reflected in Peru through a higher frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, heat waves, cold spells, and landslides, affecting ecosystems, infrastructure, and productive sectors.

Senamhi (2024)

Macro losses due to temperature

09/10/2025 Go to Evidence

6.3% of GDP would be the estimated losses for LAC associated with rising temperatures toward 2030, according to the reported climate-impact scenario (ECLAC, 2025).

6,3% del PIB serían las pérdidas estimadas para ALC asociadas al aumento de la temperatura hacia 2030, según el escenario de impactos climáticos reportado (CEPAL, 2025).

Predictive models and food security

16/07/2025 Go to Evidence

The study conducts a comprehensive review of the use of predictive models to strengthen food security in Latin America, with an emphasis on Colombia. It analyzes 65 studies published between 2014 and 2024 that apply algorithms such as Random Forests and Neural Networks to anticipate agricultural yields, manage climate risks, and optimize resources. The results show that agricultural, climatic, and technological variables predominate, while socioeconomic and nutritional dimensions are underrepresented. The article highlights the need to integrate multidimensional data to develop more robust models that strengthen the resilience and sustainability of food systems in the region.

Universidad de Santander: Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia. Universidad El Bosque: Bogotá, Bogota D.C., Colombia. Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira: Pereira, Colombia.

Trejos-Suárez, J., Pardo, L. V. C., Tabares, J. E., Garzón, S., Bryon, A., & Alarcón, Z. (2025). Modelos predictivos para la seguridad alimentaria en América Latina: Una revisión de alcance. Archivos Latinoamericanos de Nutrición, 75(2), 129-142.