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Evidences

205 results

22% of farm disaster losses

14/05/2026 Go to Evidence

22% of global agricultural disaster losses are accounted for by the Americas, with losses estimated at USD 713 billion.

World Food Programme (2026)

World Food Programme. (2026, May 14). United Nations: Latin America and the Caribbean faces increased food insecurity risks due to El Niño. https://www.wfp.org/news/united-nations-latin-america-and-caribbean-faces-increased-food-insecurity-risks-due-el-nino

100,000 people supported

14/05/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 100,000 people in 250 rural communities benefited from anticipatory actions implemented in nine countries during the 2023-2024 El Niño event, with increases of up to 40% in maize and bean production in some Central American countries.

World Food Programme (2026)

World Food Programme. (2026, May 14). United Nations: Latin America and the Caribbean faces increased food insecurity risks due to El Niño. https://www.wfp.org/news/united-nations-latin-america-and-caribbean-faces-increased-food-insecurity-risks-due-el-nino

Extreme El Niño exceeds 20%

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/

Extreme El Niño last seen in 1997

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/

Harvests rose nearly 30%

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/

Weak El Niño has 60%

01/05/2026 Go to Evidence

60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.

Bío Bío Chile (2026)

Bío Bío Chile. (2026, 1 de mayo). Lluvias, sequías y calor extremo: cómo afectará "El Niño Global" a Chile y Perú este año. https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/ciencia-y-tecnologia/medio-ambiente-cyt/2026/05/01/lluvias-sequias-y-calor-extremo-como-afectara-el-nino-global-a-chile-y-peru-este-ano.shtml

Sea temperature in Guyana (Apr-2026)

23/04/2026 Go to Evidence

In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region was close to +0.5 °C, that is, at the limit of the El Niño phase. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).

Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana, 2026

Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana

Super Niño may push global temps to +2°C

21/04/2026 Go to Evidence

Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)

(Alessi,2026)

Alessi, M. (2026, abril 21). Terrible team: Super El Niño and climate change could lead to record-breaking global temperatures. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/

3 years above 1.5°C sharpen agriculture risk

21/04/2026 Go to Evidence

The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.

(Alessi,2026)

Alessi, M. (2026, abril 21). Terrible team: Super El Niño and climate change could lead to record-breaking global temperatures. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/

LAC: water crisis hits over 100 million people

20/04/2026 Go to Evidence

100 million people in LAC face water scarcity despite the region holding 34% of the planet's renewable freshwater (FAO, 2026).

(FAO,2026)

Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura (FAO). (2026, abril 20). La FAO y CEPAL advierten que América Latina y el Caribe enfrenta una crisis hídrica que afecta a más de 100 millones de personas. https://www.fao.org/americas/news/news-detail/crisis-hidrica/es