Evidences
8 results
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
(Alessi,2026)
Alessi, M. (2026, abril 21). Terrible team: Super El Niño and climate change could lead to record-breaking global temperatures. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/
45% of Caribbean SDG targets are stagnant or regressing, making it the lowest-performing subregion (13%) versus 19% in South America and 18% in Central America (CEPAL, 2026).
(CEPAL, 2026)
Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). (2026). Al ritmo actual, América Latina y el Caribe solo cumpliría el 19% de las metas de la Agenda 2030. https://www.cepal.org
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
(The Guardian 2026)
The Guardian. (2026, abril 13). El Niño explainer. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/13/el-nino-explainer
45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the Iran war persists, with the Caribbean among the most vulnerable regions due to food import dependence and El Niño drought threats (The Guardian, 2026).
(The Guardian, 2026)
The Guardian. (2026, abril 13). El Niño explainer. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/13/el-nino-explainer
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
(Noll, 2026)
Noll, B. (2026, abril 6). Super El Niño chances increasing risks. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks/
Targeted cash transfers reduce poverty approximately 2× more per dollar spent than universal subsidies in response to food price shocks.
Crawfurd, L., & Kandpal, E. (2026). The Iran war oil shock will hit the hungry hardest—Cash should be part of the response. Center for Global Development.
Center for Global Development(2026)
45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if the Iran conflict persists, as the poorest households spend between 50% and 70% of their income on food
(Crawfurd & Kandpal, CGDev, 2026)
Center for global development (2026)
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
Kozack, J. ( 2026). International Monetary Fund.
International Monetary Fund 2026
