Evidences
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Primera-season maize in Honduras and Nicaragua was rated 'Poor' (yields 5-25% below the 5-year average) due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. Guatemala and El Salvador are also showing concern over the same climate driver.
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor (2026)
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor. (2026, September 3). Global Crop Monitor (No. 47). https://www.cropmonitor.org/global-crop-monitor
Prolonged drought during the 2026 Primera season destroyed 8,772 hectares of maize and 3,080 hectares of red beans in the Honduran departments of Lempira, Ocotepeque, Intibuca, and Comayagua (Dry Corridor). The Government of Honduras declared a state of drought on August 19, 2026, and issued a red alert over the agricultural losses.
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning (2026)
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning. (2026, September 3). Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No. 119). https://www.cropmonitor.org/crop-monitor-for-early-warning
Between April 1 and August 20, 2026, the Pacific coastal areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua received only 30-60% of their average seasonal rainfall, ranking among the driest such periods since the CHIRPS record began in 1981.
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning (2026)
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning. (2026, September 3). Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No. 119). https://www.cropmonitor.org/crop-monitor-for-early-warning
>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
National Weather Service San Juan (2026).
National Weather Service San Juan. (2026, September 3). Drought Information Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SJU&product=DGT&site=NWS
415.8 mm was the average accumulated precipitation in French Guiana from June through August 2026, the lowest total for that period since 1967 and equivalent to a 36% deficit, calculated using 13 reference stations.
Météo-France Guyane (2026).
Météo-France Guyane. (2026, September 2). Prévisions saisonnières de septembre à novembre 2026. https://meteofrance.gf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-de-septembre-novembre-2026
67% was the precipitation deficit recorded in French Guiana during August 2026, following deficits of 49% in July and 17% in June.
Météo-France Guyane (2026).
Météo-France Guyane. (2026, September 2). Prévisions saisonnières de septembre à novembre 2026. https://meteofrance.gf/fr/climat/previsions-saisonnieres-de-septembre-novembre-2026
As of September 1, 2026, 49.51% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought (59.05% across the Lower 48 states), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought conditions worsened that week across the south-central United States and along the North Dakota-South Dakota-Minnesota border area.
U.S. Drought Monitor / Drought.gov (2026)
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). (2026, September 1). National Drought Status. Drought.gov. https://www.drought.gov/national
September 7-13, 2026, is forecast to be the driest of the three weeks from September 7 to 27 and the warmest of the four-week outlook period, particularly in Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). Prévision mensuelle du 28 août 2026. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/prevision-mensuelle-du-28-aout-2026
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). El Niño 2026 confirmé comme un épisode exceptionnel. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/el-nino-2026-confirme-comme-un-episode-exceptionnel
In July 2026, the Niño3.4 index exceeded a +2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, a threshold that Météo-France classifies as strong El Niño intensity.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). El Niño 2026 confirmé comme un épisode exceptionnel. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/el-nino-2026-confirme-comme-un-episode-exceptionnel
