Evidences
160 results
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
Avramow (2026)
Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/
60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.
Bío Bío Chile (2026)
Bío Bío Chile. (2026, 1 de mayo). Lluvias, sequías y calor extremo: cómo afectará "El Niño Global" a Chile y Perú este año. https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/ciencia-y-tecnologia/medio-ambiente-cyt/2026/05/01/lluvias-sequias-y-calor-extremo-como-afectara-el-nino-global-a-chile-y-peru-este-ano.shtml
In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region was close to +0.5 °C, that is, at the limit of the El Niño phase. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana, 2026
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
(Alessi,2026)
Alessi, M. (2026, abril 21). Terrible team: Super El Niño and climate change could lead to record-breaking global temperatures. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
(Alessi,2026)
Alessi, M. (2026, abril 21). Terrible team: Super El Niño and climate change could lead to record-breaking global temperatures. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/
100 million people in LAC face water scarcity despite the region holding 34% of the planet's renewable freshwater (FAO, 2026).
(FAO,2026)
Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura (FAO). (2026, abril 20). La FAO y CEPAL advierten que América Latina y el Caribe enfrenta una crisis hídrica que afecta a más de 100 millones de personas. https://www.fao.org/americas/news/news-detail/crisis-hidrica/es
0.6 to 1.7 percentage points of GDP could be lost by Andean countries due to El Niño, impacting agriculture, hydroelectric energy, and logistics, with the agricultural sector absorbing up to 82% of drought damages (Castellanos, 2026).
(Castellanos, 2026)
Salazar Castellanos, D. (2026, abril 20). Fenómeno de El Niño: mapa de cultivos y países de América Latina que tendrían mayores riesgos en 2026. Bloomberg Línea. https://www.bloomberglinea.com/economia/fenomeno-de-el-nino-mapa-de-cultivos-y-paises-de-america-latina-que-tendrian-mayores-riesgos-en-2026/
50% of Latin America's energy comes from hydroelectric sources, making the region highly exposed to El Niño; droughts force reliance on costlier thermal plants, raising agricultural production costs (Castellanos, 2026).
(Castellanos,2026)
Salazar Castellanos, D. (2026, abril 20). Fenómeno de El Niño: mapa de cultivos y países de América Latina que tendrían mayores riesgos en 2026. Bloomberg Línea. https://www.bloomberglinea.com/economia/fenomeno-de-el-nino-mapa-de-cultivos-y-paises-de-america-latina-que-tendrian-mayores-riesgos-en-2026/
26% of climate disaster damages in LAC are absorbed by the agricultural sector on average, rising to 82% during droughts; equatorial Pacific warming also severely impacts Caribbean coastal fisheries (Castellanos, 2026).
(Castellanos, 2026)
Salazar Castellanos, D. (2026, abril 20). Fenómeno de El Niño: mapa de cultivos y países de América Latina que tendrían mayores riesgos en 2026. Bloomberg Línea. https://www.bloomberglinea.com/economia/fenomeno-de-el-nino-mapa-de-cultivos-y-paises-de-america-latina-que-tendrian-mayores-riesgos-en-2026/
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
(The Guardian 2026)
The Guardian. (2026, abril 13). El Niño explainer. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/13/el-nino-explainer
