Evidences
129 results
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
AccuWeather (2026)
AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html
It increased by 6.6% compared to the level in April 2026. It averaged 95.1 points in May 2026. (FAO, 2026). The increase is due to a possible shortage of supplies in the coming months (a possible lower sugar production in Brazil and possible effects of El Niño on sugar production in India and Thailand in 2026/27).
FAO, 2026
Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura
COP 67.272 billion was enabled by Colombia to subsidize the purchase of agricultural insurance through the Agricultural Insurance Incentive as a preventive measure against El Niño.
OPSAa (2026)
OPSAa. (2026, 28 de mayo). Colombia: Subsidios por fenómeno de El Niño habilitarán $67.272 millones para adquirir seguros agropecuarios. https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-2792-colombia-subsidios-por-fenomeno-de-el-nino-habilitaran-67272-millones-para-adquirir-seguros-agropecuarios
85% of the premium is covered by the Agricultural Insurance Incentive for small producers, while medium-sized producers receive coverage of up to 35%.
OPSAa (2026)
OPSAa. (2026, 28 de mayo). Colombia: Subsidios por fenómeno de El Niño habilitarán $67.272 millones para adquirir seguros agropecuarios. https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-2792-colombia-subsidios-por-fenomeno-de-el-nino-habilitaran-67272-millones-para-adquirir-seguros-agropecuarios
19,467 producers and 41,073 productive projects have benefited from the agricultural insurance mechanism in crops such as coffee, rice, plantain, potato, cassava, cocoa, and maize.
OPSAa (2026)
OPSAa. (2026, 28 de mayo). Colombia: Subsidios por fenómeno de El Niño habilitarán $67.272 millones para adquirir seguros agropecuarios. https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-2792-colombia-subsidios-por-fenomeno-de-el-nino-habilitaran-67272-millones-para-adquirir-seguros-agropecuarios
There is a 61% probability that El Niño will develop between May and July 2026 (IDB, 2026).
Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. (2026, mayo). El Niño 2026–2027: cómo prepararse mejor en América Latina y el Caribe. Blog Naturaleza, clima y riesgo de desastres. https://www.iadb.org/es/blog/naturaleza-clima-y-riesgo-de-desastres/el-nino-2026-2027-como-prepararse-mejor-en-america-latina-y-el-caribe
Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. (2026, mayo)
Se proyecta que 2,6 millones de personas se enfrentan a una inseguridad alimentaria aguda. (Programa Mundial de Alimentos, 2026).
Programa Mundial de Alimentos, 2026
Programa Mundial de Alimentos
In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region has been close to +0.9 °C, indicating an El Niño phase. During El Niño, Guyana experiences below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana, 2026
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana
82% probability of El Niño emergence between May and July 2026, with an upward trajectory towards a strong event. (World Food Programme, 2026).
(Programa Mundial de Alimentos, 2026)
Programa Mundial de Alimentos
17.5 million people (51% of the population) suffer from food insecurity in Peru (World Food Programme, 2026). The El Niño phenomenon acts as a multiplier of this vulnerability to potential crop loss or fishing crisis.
(Programa Mundial de Alimentos, 2026)
Programa Mundial de Alimentos
