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Evidences

84 results

Super El Niño risk

11/06/2026 Go to Evidence

30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.

AccuWeather (2026)

AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html

3 billion more people exposed to water stress

10/06/2026 Go to Evidence

3 billion additional people could be exposed to water stress by 2050 when water quality is incorporated into water scarcity assessments.

OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en.

OECD (2026):

21% of inland wetlands has been lost

10/06/2026 Go to Evidence

21% of the world's inland wetlands has been lost since 1700, representing approximately 3.4 million km².

OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en.

OECD (2026),

USD 1.1 billion in agricultural losses

10/06/2026 Go to Evidence

USD 1.1 billion in estimated economic losses were recorded for California's agricultural sector during the 2021 drought.

OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en.

OECD (2026)

21% reduction in wheat yields due to drought

10/06/2026 Go to Evidence

21% is the average reduction in wheat yields caused by mild drought conditions; rice yields decrease by 17% on average.

OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en.

OECD (2026)

60% of irrigated cropland faces high water stress

10/06/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 60% of irrigated cropland experiences high water stress, while 11% of rainfed cropland and 14% of pastureland are affected by frequent droughts.

OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en.

OECD (2026),

4.3% global reduction in rice yields

10/06/2026 Go to Evidence

4.3% was the average reduction in global annual rice yields between 1980 and 2015 due to flooding; losses reached 14% along China's eastern coast.

OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en

OECD (2026),

10% of agricultural land faces waterlogging

10/06/2026 Go to Evidence

10% of global agricultural land is affected by waterlogging or severe drainage constraints, reducing crop growth and agricultural productivity.

OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en.

OECD (2026)

Extreme El Niño exceeds 20%

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/

Extreme El Niño last seen in 1997

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/