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Evidences

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INTA forecasts above-normal rain for Patagonia

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

For September 2026, INTA forecasts above-normal precipitation continuing across most of Patagonia, with the exception of southern Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego (where normal-to-below-normal levels are expected), along with a higher probability of below-normal temperatures across most of the region.

INTA - Radar Ganadero para la Patagonia (2026)

Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 10). Radar Ganadero: agosto mostro un escenario productivo dispar en la Patagonia. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/513530

Sugarcane harvest falls by 35%

06/09/2026 Go to Evidence

312,700 tonnes of sugarcane were harvested in Guadeloupe in 2026, approximately 35% less than in 2025.

Agence France-Presse (2026).

Agence France-Presse. (2026, September 6). En Guadeloupe, la sécheresse met en péril la future récolte de canne à sucre. https://www-pp.afp.com/fr/en-guadeloupe-la-secheresse-met-en-peril-la-future-recolte-de-canne-sucre

Dryness in 13 Caribbean territories

04/09/2026 Go to Evidence

13 eastern Caribbean territories experienced some degree of dryness during July 2026: Tobago, Barbados, St Thomas, St Vincent, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, St Maarten, Guadeloupe, St Kitts, Antigua, St Croix and Anguilla.

Caribbean Regional Climate Centre (2026).

Caribbean Regional Climate Centre. (2026, September 4). SPI Monitor July 2026. https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/recent/

Central America rainfall at 30-60% of average

03/09/2026 Go to Evidence

Between April 1 and August 20, 2026, the Pacific coastal areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua received only 30-60% of their average seasonal rainfall, ranking among the driest such periods since the CHIRPS record began in 1981.

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning (2026)

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning. (2026, September 3). Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No. 119). https://www.cropmonitor.org/crop-monitor-for-early-warning

El Niño: Nearly 100% Persistence to Feb. 2027

03/09/2026 Go to Evidence

Nearly 100% is the probability that El Niño will persist during September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027, according to seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts.

Organización Meteorológica Mundial (2026)

Organización Meteorológica Mundial. (2026, September 3). El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026). https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/august-2026

El Niño Could Reach Very Strong Intensity in 2026

03/09/2026 Go to Evidence

Before the end of 2026, El Niño is forecast to reach very strong intensity and peak toward the close of the year. WMO forecasts do not anticipate ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña during the outlook period.

Organización Meteorológica Mundial (2026)

Organización Meteorológica Mundial. (2026, September 3). El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026). https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/august-2026

Maize rated 'Poor' in Honduras, Nicaragua

03/09/2026 Go to Evidence

Primera-season maize in Honduras and Nicaragua was rated 'Poor' (yields 5-25% below the 5-year average) due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. Guatemala and El Salvador are also showing concern over the same climate driver.

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor (2026)

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor. (2026, September 3). Global Crop Monitor (No. 47). https://www.cropmonitor.org/global-crop-monitor

High chance of below-normal rainfall

03/09/2026 Go to Evidence

>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.

National Weather Service San Juan (2026).

National Weather Service San Juan. (2026, September 3). Drought Information Statement for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SJU&product=DGT&site=NWS

Honduras drought destroys 8,772 ha of maize

03/09/2026 Go to Evidence

Prolonged drought during the 2026 Primera season destroyed 8,772 hectares of maize and 3,080 hectares of red beans in the Honduran departments of Lempira, Ocotepeque, Intibuca, and Comayagua (Dry Corridor). The Government of Honduras declared a state of drought on August 19, 2026, and issued a red alert over the agricultural losses.

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning (2026)

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning. (2026, September 3). Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No. 119). https://www.cropmonitor.org/crop-monitor-for-early-warning