Evidences
160 results
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
ENFEN (2026)
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN). (2026, 28 de agosto). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.° 15-2026. OPSAa: https://opsaa.iica.int/es/resource-3022-comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026. Documento original: https://enfen.imarpe.gob.pe/download/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-15-2026/?wpdmdl=2145
In July 2026, the Niño3.4 index exceeded a +2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, a threshold that Météo-France classifies as strong El Niño intensity.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). El Niño 2026 confirmé comme un épisode exceptionnel. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/el-nino-2026-confirme-comme-un-episode-exceptionnel
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). El Niño 2026 confirmé comme un épisode exceptionnel. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/el-nino-2026-confirme-comme-un-episode-exceptionnel
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). El Niño 2026 confirmé comme un épisode exceptionnel. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/el-nino-2026-confirme-comme-un-episode-exceptionnel
Between +0.5°C and +1.5°C above normal are the temperatures forecast from August 31 to September 27, 2026, in Guadeloupe, Saint-Martin, and Saint-Barthélemy.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). Prévision mensuelle du 28 août 2026. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/prevision-mensuelle-du-28-aout-2026
The strengthening El Nino across Central America - on track to be one of the strongest events since 1950 in 2026 - has driven Guatemala's worst drought of the season: 52 consecutive days without rain that have already caused crop losses in 138 of the country's municipalities, according to the Executive Secretariat for Disaster Reduction (SE-CONRED), reported at CONASAN's extraordinary meeting on August 28, 2026.
SESAN Guatemala - CONASAN (2026)
Secretaria de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional (SESAN). (2026, August 28). CONASAN en alerta: sequia pone en riesgo cultivos, agua y economia familiar. https://portal.sesan.gob.gt/2026/08/28/conasan-en-alerta-sequia-pone-en-riesgo-cultivos-agua-y-economia-familiar/
The drought that El Nino is intensifying across Central America has left 236,447 Guatemalan families affected, according to the National Food and Nutrition Security Council (CONASAN), reported at its extraordinary meeting on August 28, 2026, which is evaluating raising the alert level to orange or red to activate the National Response Plan.
SESAN Guatemala - CONASAN (2026)
Secretaria de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional (SESAN). (2026, August 28). CONASAN en alerta: sequia pone en riesgo cultivos, agua y economia familiar. https://portal.sesan.gob.gt/2026/08/28/conasan-en-alerta-sequia-pone-en-riesgo-cultivos-agua-y-economia-familiar/
From August 31 to September 27, 2026, Météo-France forecasts rainfall totals clearly below normal across the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles. From September 7 to 27, the rainfall deficit is expected to range from slight to moderate.
Météo-France (2026)
Météo-France. (2026, August 28). Prévision mensuelle du 28 août 2026. Météo-France Guadeloupe. https://meteofrance.gp/fr/climat/prevision-mensuelle-du-28-aout-2026
47.56% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought as of August 25, 2026.
National Integrated Drought Information System (2026)
National Integrated Drought Information System. (2026, August 27). National drought status. Drought.gov. https://www.drought.gov/national
43 U.S. states were experiencing Moderate Drought (D1) or worse during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
National Integrated Drought Information System (2026)
National Integrated Drought Information System. (2026, August 27). National drought status. Drought.gov. https://www.drought.gov/national
