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Monitoring, Evaluation and Best Practices

Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies

Evidences

184 results

El Niño may pressure two inflation types

28/07/2026 Go to Evidence

2 components of inflation, food and energy, could increase in response to an intense El Niño event in Latin America during 2026.

AgroLatam.com (2026)

AgroLatam.com. (2026, 28 de julio). ¿Qué países serán los más golpeados por El Niño en 2026? https://www.agrolatam.com/agricultura-latam/paises-mas-golpeados-el-nino-america-latina-2026/

Tag: Food_Inflation ElNiño Climate_Risks Food_Securtiy_And_Nutrition Agriculture&Energy
Country: Latin America and the Caribbean (aggregate) Colombia Peru Brazil Argentina
Sector: Agri-Food (total) Renewable energy
Area: Agrifood Context
Beneficiary: Consumers Agricultural producers Private enterprises Public institutions
Result: Food affordability Impact: Food and nutritional security Risk mitigation

Four countries most exposed to El Niño

28/07/2026 Go to Evidence

4 Latin American countries, Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina, have the greatest exposure to an intense El Niño event in 2026, according to a Bank of America report.

AgroLatam.com (2026)

AgroLatam.com. (2026, 28 de julio). ¿Qué países serán los más golpeados por El Niño en 2026? https://www.agrolatam.com/agricultura-latam/paises-mas-golpeados-el-nino-america-latina-2026/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Food_Securtiy_And_Nutrition
Country: Colombia Peru Brazil Argentina Latin America and the Caribbean (aggregate)
Sector: Agri-Food (total)
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Beneficiary: Public institutions Agricultural producers Family agriculture
Result: Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation

Three crops at risk from El Niño

28/07/2026 Go to Evidence

3 strategic crops, maize, sugar and wheat, face production risks associated with El Niño: lower maize and sugar production in Brazil and impacts on part of Argentina's wheat harvest.

AgroLatam.com (2026)

AgroLatam.com. (2026, 28 de julio). ¿Qué países serán los más golpeados por El Niño en 2026? https://www.agrolatam.com/agricultura-latam/paises-mas-golpeados-el-nino-america-latina-2026/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Value_chains Food_Securtiy_And_Nutrition
Country: Brazil Argentina
Sector: Cereals and cereal products Agri-Food (total)
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Family agriculture Exporters Private enterprises
Result: Improved productivity Risk mitigation Impact: Food and nutritional security

Export duties fall by two percentage points

21/05/2026 Go to Evidence

2 percentage points is the reduction in export duties applied to wheat and barley in Argentina, lowering the rate from 7.5% to 5.5% beginning in June 2026.

AgroLatam.com (2026)

AgroLatam.com. (2026, 21 de mayo). ¿Milei baja retenciones y cambia el futuro del campo argentino? https://www.agrolatam.com/actualidad/golpe-al-costo-productivo-milei-baja-retenciones-y-reactiva-expectativas-del-agro/

Tag: Value_chains
Country: Argentina

Harvests rose nearly 30%

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks
Country: Argentina Latin America and the Caribbean (aggregate)
Sector: Agri-Food (total) Cereals and cereal products Environment and natural resources
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Studies and diagnoses Prospective studies (forecasting)
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers
Result: Improved productivity Impact: Climate risk resilience Profitability

Extreme El Niño exceeds 20%

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Droughts Floods
Country: Argentina Latin America and the Caribbean (aggregate) Americas (aggregate)
Sector: Environment and natural resources Agri-Food (total) Multisectoral
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Prospective studies (forecasting) Studies and diagnoses Early warning systems
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers
Result: Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation Information generation

Extreme El Niño last seen in 1997

02/05/2026 Go to Evidence

1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.

Avramow (2026)

Avramow, M. (2026, 2 de mayo). La opinión y cautela de los expertos ante la probabilidad de que se desarrolle una versión extrema de El Niño en la Argentina. La Nación. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/la-opinion-y-cautela-de-los-expertos-ante-la-probabilidad-de-que-se-desarrolle-una-version-extrema-nid02052026/

Tag: ElNiño Climate_Risks Floods Droughts
Country: Argentina
Sector: Environment and natural resources Agri-Food (total) Multisectoral
Area: Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture Water for Agriculture Agrifood Context
Instrument: Studies and diagnoses Prospective studies (forecasting)
Beneficiary: Agricultural producers Rural communities
Result: Impact: Climate risk resilience Risk mitigation

International price increase

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Urea prices have risen by up to 50% internationally due to the conflict in the Middle East (La Nación, 2026).

La Nación. (2026, marzo 30). Guerra en Medio Oriente: en el país hay stock de fertilizantes para cubrir entre 30 y 60 días. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/guerra-en-medio-oriente-en-el-pais-hay-stock-de-fertilizantes-para-cubrir-entre-30-y-60-dias-nid30032026/

La Nación

Tag: Armed_Conflict
Country: Argentina World (aggregate)
Sector: Fertilizers (Value Chain)
Area: International Trade and Regional Integration Agrifood Context Bioinputs
Beneficiary: Private enterprises Exporters Agricultural producers

Short-term available stock

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Argentina currently has 30–60 days of fertilizer coverage, allowing the wheat campaign to begin without immediate problems (La Nación, 2026).

La Nación. (2026, marzo 30). Guerra en Medio Oriente: en el país hay stock de fertilizantes para cubrir entre 30 y 60 días. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/guerra-en-medio-oriente-en-el-pais-hay-stock-de-fertilizantes-para-cubrir-entre-30-y-60-dias-nid30032026/

La Nación

Tag: Armed_Conflict
Country: Argentina
Sector: Fertilizers (Value Chain)
Area: International Trade and Regional Integration Bioinputs
Beneficiary: Private enterprises Agricultural producers

Local production coverage

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

60% of the urea used in Argentina is supplied by domestic production (Profertil), partially reducing external dependence (La Nación, 2026).

La Nación. (2026, marzo 30). Guerra en Medio Oriente: en el país hay stock de fertilizantes para cubrir entre 30 y 60 días. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/guerra-en-medio-oriente-en-el-pais-hay-stock-de-fertilizantes-para-cubrir-entre-30-y-60-dias-nid30032026/

La Nación

Tag: Armed_Conflict
Country: Argentina
Sector: Fertilizers (Value Chain)
Area: International Trade and Regional Integration Bioinputs
Beneficiary: Private enterprises Exporters Agricultural producers