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Evidences

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Soybean yields exceed average in El Niño years

11/09/2026 Go to Evidence

Argentina's first-crop (early-planted) soybean recorded above-average yields in 91% of the farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.

INTA Argentina (2026)

Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 11). Administrar riesgos y transformar mas agua en mas produccion. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/administrar-riesgos-y-transformar-mas-agua-en-mas-produccion

World grain output nears 2.94 billion

11/09/2026 Go to Evidence

2,944.15 million metric tons is the projected total world grain output for 2026/27 in September 2026.

World Agricultural Outlook Board (2026)

World Agricultural Outlook Board. (2026). World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-675). U.S. Department of Agriculture. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796054/wasde0926.txt

World rice output reaches 533.85 million

11/09/2026 Go to Evidence

533.85 million metric tons is the projected world milled rice output for 2026/27 in September 2026.

World Agricultural Outlook Board (2026)

World Agricultural Outlook Board. (2026). World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-675). U.S. Department of Agriculture. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796054/wasde0926.txt

Pampas water reserves at 80-100%

11/09/2026 Go to Evidence

Usable water reserves across much of Argentina's Pampas region stand at 80-100%, per estimates from the SEPA-INTA system for the 2026/27 farming season - a scenario INTA links to the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon forecast for the October-December 2026 quarter.

INTA Argentina (2026)

Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 11). Administrar riesgos y transformar mas agua en mas produccion. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/administrar-riesgos-y-transformar-mas-agua-en-mas-produccion

Below-average rangeland expands across Patagonia

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

INTA's NDVI monitoring (August 2026) recorded a significant increase in rangeland areas with below-average productivity, relative to the 2011-2026 historical baseline, across central Neuquen, north-central Rio Negro, south-central and southwestern Chubut, and the entire central area of Santa Cruz; the index remained low in Comarca Andina and in Chubut's Gaiman and F. Ameghino departments.

INTA - Radar Ganadero para la Patagonia (2026)

Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 10). Radar Ganadero: agosto mostro un escenario productivo dispar en la Patagonia. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/513530

INTA forecasts above-normal rain for Patagonia

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

For September 2026, INTA forecasts above-normal precipitation continuing across most of Patagonia, with the exception of southern Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego (where normal-to-below-normal levels are expected), along with a higher probability of below-normal temperatures across most of the region.

INTA - Radar Ganadero para la Patagonia (2026)

Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 10). Radar Ganadero: agosto mostro un escenario productivo dispar en la Patagonia. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/513530

Niño 3.4 reached +1.8 °C in August

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.

Henríquez (2026)

Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html

Over 90% chance of a very strong El Niño

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.

Henríquez (2026)

Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html

75% chance of a historic El Niño

10/09/2026 Go to Evidence

75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.

Henríquez (2026)

Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html