Evidences
129 results
48% is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude during December 2026-March 2027 in Peru, while the probability of strong magnitude is 45% and moderate magnitude is 7%.
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN, 2026)
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno “El Niño” (ENFEN). (2026, 14 de septiembre). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.º 16-2026. Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE). https://repositorio.imarpe.gob.pe/items/d1eadaba-d087-487e-a0a2-9f894e37a9f1/full
During the four weeks from September 14 to October 11, 2026, the IMN forecasts below-normal rainfall in Costa Rica's Pacific region, Central Valley, and Western Northern Zone. The pattern is expected to be associated with El Niño and stronger-than-usual trade winds.
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica (2026)
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica. (2026). Pronóstico subestacional: válido del 14 de septiembre al 11 de octubre de 2026. https://www.imn.ac.cr/busqueda?_101_assetEntryId=564589&_101_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_type=content&_101_urlTitle=contenido-pronostico-subestacional&p_p_id=101&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_mode=view&p_p_state=maximized
Argentina's national maize yield exceeded the historical average in 10 of the 12 farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.
INTA Argentina (2026)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 11). Administrar riesgos y transformar mas agua en mas produccion. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/administrar-riesgos-y-transformar-mas-agua-en-mas-produccion
Argentina's first-crop (early-planted) soybean recorded above-average yields in 91% of the farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.
INTA Argentina (2026)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 11). Administrar riesgos y transformar mas agua en mas produccion. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/administrar-riesgos-y-transformar-mas-agua-en-mas-produccion
Usable water reserves across much of Argentina's Pampas region stand at 80-100%, per estimates from the SEPA-INTA system for the 2026/27 farming season - a scenario INTA links to the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon forecast for the October-December 2026 quarter.
INTA Argentina (2026)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 11). Administrar riesgos y transformar mas agua en mas produccion. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/administrar-riesgos-y-transformar-mas-agua-en-mas-produccion
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
For September 2026, INTA forecasts above-normal precipitation continuing across most of Patagonia, with the exception of southern Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego (where normal-to-below-normal levels are expected), along with a higher probability of below-normal temperatures across most of the region.
INTA - Radar Ganadero para la Patagonia (2026)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 10). Radar Ganadero: agosto mostro un escenario productivo dispar en la Patagonia. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/513530
INTA's NDVI monitoring (August 2026) recorded a significant increase in rangeland areas with below-average productivity, relative to the 2011-2026 historical baseline, across central Neuquen, north-central Rio Negro, south-central and southwestern Chubut, and the entire central area of Santa Cruz; the index remained low in Comarca Andina and in Chubut's Gaiman and F. Ameghino departments.
INTA - Radar Ganadero para la Patagonia (2026)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 10). Radar Ganadero: agosto mostro un escenario productivo dispar en la Patagonia. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/513530
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
