129 results
In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region was close to +0.5 °C, that is, at the limit of the El Niño phase. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana, 2026
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
(Alessi,2026)
Alessi, M. (2026, abril 21). Terrible team: Super El Niño and climate change could lead to record-breaking global temperatures. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
(Alessi,2026)
Alessi, M. (2026, abril 21). Terrible team: Super El Niño and climate change could lead to record-breaking global temperatures. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/
0.6 to 1.7 percentage points of GDP could be lost by Andean countries due to El Niño, impacting agriculture, hydroelectric energy, and logistics, with the agricultural sector absorbing up to 82% of drought damages (Castellanos, 2026).
(Castellanos, 2026)
Salazar Castellanos, D. (2026, abril 20). Fenómeno de El Niño: mapa de cultivos y países de América Latina que tendrían mayores riesgos en 2026. Bloomberg Línea. https://www.bloomberglinea.com/economia/fenomeno-de-el-nino-mapa-de-cultivos-y-paises-de-america-latina-que-tendrian-mayores-riesgos-en-2026/
50% of Latin America's energy comes from hydroelectric sources, making the region highly exposed to El Niño; droughts force reliance on costlier thermal plants, raising agricultural production costs (Castellanos, 2026).
(Castellanos,2026)
Salazar Castellanos, D. (2026, abril 20). Fenómeno de El Niño: mapa de cultivos y países de América Latina que tendrían mayores riesgos en 2026. Bloomberg Línea. https://www.bloomberglinea.com/economia/fenomeno-de-el-nino-mapa-de-cultivos-y-paises-de-america-latina-que-tendrian-mayores-riesgos-en-2026/
26% of climate disaster damages in LAC are absorbed by the agricultural sector on average, rising to 82% during droughts; equatorial Pacific warming also severely impacts Caribbean coastal fisheries (Castellanos, 2026).
(Castellanos, 2026)
Salazar Castellanos, D. (2026, abril 20). Fenómeno de El Niño: mapa de cultivos y países de América Latina que tendrían mayores riesgos en 2026. Bloomberg Línea. https://www.bloomberglinea.com/economia/fenomeno-de-el-nino-mapa-de-cultivos-y-paises-de-america-latina-que-tendrian-mayores-riesgos-en-2026/
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
(The Guardian 2026)
The Guardian. (2026, abril 13). El Niño explainer. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/13/el-nino-explainer
45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the Iran war persists, with the Caribbean among the most vulnerable regions due to food import dependence and El Niño drought threats (The Guardian, 2026).
(The Guardian, 2026)
The Guardian. (2026, abril 13). El Niño explainer. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/13/el-nino-explainer
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
(Noll, 2026)
Noll, B. (2026, abril 6). Super El Niño chances increasing risks. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks/
24 vessels per day transited the Panama Canal during the 2023–24 El Niño drought, down from the usual 36, with draft restrictions set at 44 feet (Noll, 2026).
(Noll,2026)
Noll, B. (2026, abril 6). Super El Niño chances increasing risks. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks/