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+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html
For September 2026, INTA forecasts above-normal precipitation continuing across most of Patagonia, with the exception of southern Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego (where normal-to-below-normal levels are expected), along with a higher probability of below-normal temperatures across most of the region.
INTA - Radar Ganadero para la Patagonia (2026)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 10). Radar Ganadero: agosto mostro un escenario productivo dispar en la Patagonia. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/513530
INTA's NDVI monitoring (August 2026) recorded a significant increase in rangeland areas with below-average productivity, relative to the 2011-2026 historical baseline, across central Neuquen, north-central Rio Negro, south-central and southwestern Chubut, and the entire central area of Santa Cruz; the index remained low in Comarca Andina and in Chubut's Gaiman and F. Ameghino departments.
INTA - Radar Ganadero para la Patagonia (2026)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (INTA). (2026, September 10). Radar Ganadero: agosto mostro un escenario productivo dispar en la Patagonia. Argentina.gob.ar. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/513530
312,700 tonnes of sugarcane were harvested in Guadeloupe in 2026, approximately 35% less than in 2025.
Agence France-Presse (2026).
Agence France-Presse. (2026, September 6). En Guadeloupe, la sécheresse met en péril la future récolte de canne à sucre. https://www-pp.afp.com/fr/en-guadeloupe-la-secheresse-met-en-peril-la-future-recolte-de-canne-sucre
13 eastern Caribbean territories experienced some degree of dryness during July 2026: Tobago, Barbados, St Thomas, St Vincent, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, St Maarten, Guadeloupe, St Kitts, Antigua, St Croix and Anguilla.
Caribbean Regional Climate Centre (2026).
Caribbean Regional Climate Centre. (2026, September 4). SPI Monitor July 2026. https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/recent/
Prolonged drought during the 2026 Primera season destroyed 8,772 hectares of maize and 3,080 hectares of red beans in the Honduran departments of Lempira, Ocotepeque, Intibuca, and Comayagua (Dry Corridor). The Government of Honduras declared a state of drought on August 19, 2026, and issued a red alert over the agricultural losses.
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning (2026)
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning. (2026, September 3). Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No. 119). https://www.cropmonitor.org/crop-monitor-for-early-warning
Primera-season maize in Honduras and Nicaragua was rated 'Poor' (yields 5-25% below the 5-year average) due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. Guatemala and El Salvador are also showing concern over the same climate driver.
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor (2026)
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor. (2026, September 3). Global Crop Monitor (No. 47). https://www.cropmonitor.org/global-crop-monitor
Between April 1 and August 20, 2026, the Pacific coastal areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua received only 30-60% of their average seasonal rainfall, ranking among the driest such periods since the CHIRPS record began in 1981.
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning (2026)
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning. (2026, September 3). Crop Monitor for Early Warning (No. 119). https://www.cropmonitor.org/crop-monitor-for-early-warning