Blog IICA

Evidences

2.554 results

Effect of the c. of Hormuz on inflation (Peru)

20/03/2026 Go to Evidence

It is estimated that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have an impact on inflation of 0.4 percentage points due to increased costs of freight, fertilizers, petrochemicals, among others. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (20 de marzo de 2026). Reporte de inflación - Marzo 2026.

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Possible impact of El Niño on GDP (Peru)

20/03/2026 Go to Evidence

It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (20 de marzo de 2026). Reporte de inflación - Marzo 2026.

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Caribbean under pressure from Middle East conflict

19/03/2026 Go to Evidence

The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.

Kozack, J. ( 2026). International Monetary Fund.

International Monetary Fund 2026

Conflict Could Drive Up Fertilizer Prices

15/03/2026 Go to Evidence

15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

(FAO, 2026).

Food and Agriculture Organization

Farmers capture 18.5% of the final price

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

18.5% of the final price of food purchased for at-home consumption in the United States was captured by producers in 2024.

USDA Economic Research Service (2026)

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, March 10). Food Dollar: Summary findings. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-dollar/summary-findings

Higher debt costs after Hormuz disruptions

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Risk to Fertilizer Supplies in Hormuz

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Tanker freight and marine fuel rise in Hormuz

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.

UNCTAD (2026). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Brent prices rise following disruptions in Ormuz

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)