39 results
Targeted cash transfers reduce poverty approximately 2× more per dollar spent than universal subsidies in response to food price shocks.
Crawfurd, L., & Kandpal, E. (2026). The Iran war oil shock will hit the hungry hardest—Cash should be part of the response. Center for Global Development.
Center for Global Development(2026)
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
(Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
Bloomberg Línea (2026)
Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
UNCTAD. (2026). Actualización sobre el comercio mundial 2026: Principales tendencias que configuran el comercio internacional. Naciones Unidas
Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (2026)
Brazil's soybean production was revised down to 179 million tonnes (from 180M) due to excessive rainfall in northern and central producing states; Brazil's competitive discount makes it unlikely China will purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of soybeans from the US (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Darragh, M., y Bhanu, I. (2026, 27 de marzo). The Strait of Hormuz blockade: what it means for grain and food security. Kpler.
Kpler(2026)
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Darragh, M., y Bhanu, I. (2026). The Strait of Hormuz blockade: what it means for grain and food security. Kpler.
Kpler (2026)
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
Kozack, J. ( 2026). International Monetary Fund.
International Monetary Fund 2026
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
UNCTAD (2026). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).
UNCTAD. (2026). Actualización sobre el comercio mundial 2026: Principales tendencias que configuran el comercio internacional. Naciones Unidas.
Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (2026)