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Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
UNCTAD. (2026). Actualización sobre el comercio mundial 2026: Principales tendencias que configuran el comercio internacional. Naciones Unidas
Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (2026)
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
(Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
Bloomberg Línea (2026)
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Darragh, M., y Bhanu, I. (2026). The Strait of Hormuz blockade: what it means for grain and food security. Kpler.
Kpler (2026)
Brazil's soybean production was revised down to 179 million tonnes (from 180M) due to excessive rainfall in northern and central producing states; Brazil's competitive discount makes it unlikely China will purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of soybeans from the US (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Darragh, M., y Bhanu, I. (2026, 27 de marzo). The Strait of Hormuz blockade: what it means for grain and food security. Kpler.
Kpler(2026)
During the 2025-2026 agricultural season in the Peruvian highlands, the frosts of February 2026 affected between 50% and 100% of the quinoa, potato, and forage crops, with variable development, from good to fair. (National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru, 2026).
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú. (2026). Senamhi impulsa foro binacional Perú–Bolivia para analizar el comportamiento climático 2025–2026 en el Altiplano.
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (SENHAMI)
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru indicates that it reduced the growth projection for the agricultural sector from 3.0% to 2.5% in anticipation of a weak Coastal El Niño event. (BCRP, 2026).
(Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, 2026)
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (20 de marzo de 2026). Reporte de inflación - Marzo 2026.
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
It is estimated that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have an impact on inflation of 0.4 percentage points due to increased costs of freight, fertilizers, petrochemicals, among others. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (20 de marzo de 2026). Reporte de inflación - Marzo 2026.
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
Kozack, J. ( 2026). International Monetary Fund.
International Monetary Fund 2026
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
(FAO, 2026).
Food and Agriculture Organization