the oil price shock
45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if the Iran conflict persists, as the poorest households spend between 50% and 70% of their income on food
(Crawfurd & Kandpal, CGDev, 2026)
Center for global development (2026)
693 results
45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if the Iran conflict persists, as the poorest households spend between 50% and 70% of their income on food
(Crawfurd & Kandpal, CGDev, 2026)
Center for global development (2026)
Targeted cash transfers reduce poverty approximately 2× more per dollar spent than universal subsidies in response to food price shocks.
Crawfurd, L., & Kandpal, E. (2026). The Iran war oil shock will hit the hungry hardest—Cash should be part of the response. Center for Global Development.
Center for Global Development(2026)
On April 2, 2026, Haiti's government announced a 37% increase in diesel prices and 29% in gasoline, triggering street protests in Port-au-Prince. With gangs controlling an estimated 90% of fuel distribution, the price hike is compounding an already severe food security crisis.
(The Republic, 2026)
The Republic. (2026). Haitians cut back on already scarce food and ask how they'll survive rising fuel prices. https://www.therepublic.com/2026/04/12/haitians-cut-back-on-already-scarce-food-and-ask-how-theyll-survive-rising-fuel-prices/
Nearly 40% of Haitians survive on less than $2.15 daily, and experts warn the fuel hike will force 'impossible tradeoffs' regarding basic services and food access for already struggling families.
(The Republic, 2026)
The Republic. (2026). Haitians cut back on already scarce food and ask how they'll survive rising fuel prices. https://www.therepublic.com/2026/04/12/haitians-cut-back-on-already-scarce-food-and-ask-how-theyll-survive-rising-fuel-prices/
60,000 people in Haiti's central region are without access to WFP food assistance due to gang violence. 1.4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) are at risk of food insecurity.
(The Republic, 2026)
The Republic. (2026, abril 2). Haitians cut back on already scarce food and ask how they'll survive rising fuel prices. https://www.therepublic.com/2026/04/12/haitians-cut-back-on-already-scarce-food-and-ask-how-theyll-survive-rising-fuel-prices/
ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral in Guyana, with a 55% probability of persistence through the season. (Hydrometeorigical Service of Guyana, 2026).
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana, 2026
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana
20% of the total demand for phosphates in Brazil could be affected by the projected deficit (Canuto, 2026).
Canuto, O. (2026). Transmission channels of the war on Iran to the Brazilian economy. Policy Center for the New South. https://www.policycenter.ma/publications/transmission-channels-war-iran-brazilian-economy
Policy Center for the New South
Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia. (2026). Índice de Precios Agropecuarios BMC - Marzo de 2026
Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia
74.67% was the increase in the price of urea, rising from 415.4 to 725.6 dollars per ton between the start of 2026 and March 31.
Hernández (2026)
Hernández, E. (2026, 6 de abril). La guerra de Irán dispara 74.67% el precio de la urea, el fertilizante más popular del mundo. Forbes México. https://forbes.com.mx/la-guerra-de-iran-dispara-74-67-el-precio-de-la-urea-el-fertilizante-mas-popular-del-mundo/
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
(Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
Bloomberg Línea (2026)