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Conflict Could Drive Up Fertilizer Prices

15/03/2026 Go to Evidence

15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

(FAO, 2026).

Food and Agriculture Organization

Tanker freight and marine fuel rise in Hormuz

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.

UNCTAD (2026). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Brent prices rise following disruptions in Ormuz

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Farmers capture 18.5% of the final price

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

18.5% of the final price of food purchased for at-home consumption in the United States was captured by producers in 2024.

USDA Economic Research Service (2026)

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, March 10). Food Dollar: Summary findings. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-dollar/summary-findings

Risk to Fertilizer Supplies in Hormuz

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Higher debt costs after Hormuz disruptions

10/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Hormuz: 95% collapse in maritime traffic

08/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).

UNCTAD. (2026). Actualización sobre el comercio mundial 2026: Principales tendencias que configuran el comercio internacional. Naciones Unidas.

Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (2026)

3.49 million may face crisis in Haiti

Between 3.0 and 3.49 million people are expected to face Crisis, IPC Phase 3, or Emergency, IPC Phase 4, outcomes in Haiti between June 2026 and January 2027. The number of people in need is expected to peak in November before the winter harvests due to persistent violence, population displacement, high food prices and below-average incomes.

FEWS NET (2026)

FEWS NET. (2026). Persistent insecurity, high prices, and weather shocks maintain Crisis and Emergency: Haiti Food Security Outlook, June 2026-January 2027. https://fews.net/latin-america-and-caribbean/haiti/food-security-outlook/june-2026