Evidences
554 results
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru indicates that it reduced the growth projection for the agricultural sector from 3.0% to 2.5% in anticipation of a weak Coastal El Niño event. (BCRP, 2026).
(Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, 2026)
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
(FAO, 2026).
Food and Agriculture Organization
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
UNCTAD (2026). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
18.5% of the final price of food purchased for at-home consumption in the United States was captured by producers in 2024.
USDA Economic Research Service (2026)
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, March 10). Food Dollar: Summary findings. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-dollar/summary-findings
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2026, 10 de marzo). Las interrupciones del transporte marítimo en Ormuz aumentan los riesgos para la energía, los fertilizantes y las economías vulnerables.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).
UNCTAD. (2026). Actualización sobre el comercio mundial 2026: Principales tendencias que configuran el comercio internacional. Naciones Unidas.
Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (2026)
Weak La Niña conditions are likely with 60% probability that neutral conditions will prevail during the March–May 2026 season. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana, 2026
Servicio Hidrometeorológico de Guyana
Between 3.0 and 3.49 million people are expected to face Crisis, IPC Phase 3, or Emergency, IPC Phase 4, outcomes in Haiti between June 2026 and January 2027. The number of people in need is expected to peak in November before the winter harvests due to persistent violence, population displacement, high food prices and below-average incomes.
FEWS NET (2026)
FEWS NET. (2026). Persistent insecurity, high prices, and weather shocks maintain Crisis and Emergency: Haiti Food Security Outlook, June 2026-January 2027. https://fews.net/latin-america-and-caribbean/haiti/food-security-outlook/june-2026