Evidence detail

Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia. (2026). Índice de Precios Agropecuarios BMC - Marzo de 2026

Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia

Gulf: 13% of global nitrogen and 9% of phosphate

Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).

UNCTAD. (2026). Actualización sobre el comercio mundial 2026: Principales tendencias que configuran el comercio internacional. Naciones Unidas

Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (2026)

Only 5 fertilizer vessels exited the Gulf

Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).

Darragh, M., y Bhanu, I. (2026). The Strait of Hormuz blockade: what it means for grain and food security. Kpler.

Kpler (2026)

Collapse of fertilizer shipments through Hormuz

Fertilizer-related outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to their lowest level since January 2026 following Iran's announcement of the strait's closure on 2 March 2026.

AXSMarine (Signal Group) & World Trade Organization. (2026). Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker. WTO Data Lab.

World Trade Organization (2026)

Possible impact of El Niño on GDP (Peru)

It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (20 de marzo de 2026). Reporte de inflación - Marzo 2026.

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Caribbean under pressure from Middle East conflict

The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.

Kozack, J. ( 2026). International Monetary Fund.

International Monetary Fund 2026

Conflict Could Drive Up Fertilizer Prices

15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

(FAO, 2026).

Food and Agriculture Organization

Hormuz: 95% collapse in maritime traffic

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).

UNCTAD. (2026). Actualización sobre el comercio mundial 2026: Principales tendencias que configuran el comercio internacional. Naciones Unidas.

Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (2026)

3.49 million may face crisis in Haiti

Between 3.0 and 3.49 million people are expected to face Crisis, IPC Phase 3, or Emergency, IPC Phase 4, outcomes in Haiti between June 2026 and January 2027. The number of people in need is expected to peak in November before the winter harvests due to persistent violence, population displacement, high food prices and below-average incomes.

FEWS NET (2026)

FEWS NET. (2026). Persistent insecurity, high prices, and weather shocks maintain Crisis and Emergency: Haiti Food Security Outlook, June 2026-January 2027. https://fews.net/latin-america-and-caribbean/haiti/food-security-outlook/june-2026

Backyard Poultry Ownership in Rural Houses - LAC

Up to 80% of rural households in Latin America and the Caribbean own backyard poultry. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).

Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura, 2026

Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura