Blog IICA

Evidences

129 results

Super Niño 2026 may be strongest on record

06/04/2026 Go to Evidence

ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).

(Noll, 2026)

Noll, B. (2026, abril 6). Super El Niño chances increasing risks. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks/

Peru: 2015 El Niño raised pesticide exposure risk

01/04/2026 Go to Evidence

The study maps 1,793 of 1,874 Peruvian districts (95.7%), with moderate-to-high risk zones covering over one-third of the national territory, indicating ENSO events amplify pesticide dispersal. (Honles,J. et al, 2026)

(Honles,J. et al, 2026)

Honles, J., Cerapio, J. P., Monge, C., Marchio, A., Ruiz, E., Fernández, R., Bertani, S. (2026). Mapping pesticide mixtures to cancer risk at the country scale with spatial exposomics. Nature Health. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44360-026-00087-0

Possible impact of El Niño on GDP (Peru)

20/03/2026 Go to Evidence

It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (20 de marzo de 2026). Reporte de inflación - Marzo 2026.

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Agri, forestry and fishing: 11.3% of GDP

11.3% of Guyana's GDP came from agriculture, forestry and fishing in 2023, compared with an average of 12.6% for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Global Green Growth Institute, 2026, p. 13

Global Green Growth Institute. (2026). Guyana's National Drainage and Irrigation Strategy 2030: Enhancing decision making for a resilient, efficient, and sustainable drainage and irrigation system in Guyana.

Over 50% of Region 5 faces flood risk

More than 50% of Guyana's Region 5 is exposed to flood risk, including 29% of its populated and agricultural land.

Global Green Growth Institute, 2026, p. 13-14

Global Green Growth Institute. (2026). Guyana's National Drainage and Irrigation Strategy 2030: Enhancing decision making for a resilient, efficient, and sustainable drainage and irrigation system in Guyana.

Declive en la Producción Nacional (ES)

12/06/2025 Go to Evidence

La producción de leche fluida en Panamá ha experimentado una tendencia decreciente en los últimos años. En 2015 se producían unos 205 millones de litros anuales, mientras que para 2023 la cifra cayó a 179 millones de litros, una reducción cercana al 13%. Esta caída productiva se atribuye principalmente a factores climáticos adversos y eventos extremos recurrentes (fenómenos El Niño/La Niña) que merman la disponibilidad de forrajes. (ES)