Evidences
129 results
From October 5 to 11, 2026, every region of Costa Rica is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall. The IMN estimates an extreme-event probability of about 20%, although it reports high uncertainty for this final week of the outlook.
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica (2026)
Instituto Meteorológico Nacional de Costa Rica. (2026). Pronóstico subestacional: válido del 14 de septiembre al 11 de octubre de 2026. https://www.imn.ac.cr/busqueda?_101_assetEntryId=564589&_101_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_type=content&_101_urlTitle=contenido-pronostico-subestacional&p_p_id=101&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_mode=view&p_p_state=maximized
For the week of October 12-18, 2026, Costa Rica's National Meteorological Institute (IMN) forecasts a generalization of dry conditions nationwide: the Pacific, Caribbean, Northern Zone, Central Valley, and Northwestern Zone would all see below-normal rainfall, with the forecast's uncertainty level rated as high.
IMN Costa Rica (2026)
Instituto Meteorologico Nacional (IMN) de Costa Rica. (2026, September). Pronostico subestacional: valido del 21 de setiembre al 18 de octubre de 2026. https://www.imn.ac.cr/web/imn/busqueda?_101_assetEntryId=564589&_101_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_type=content&_101_urlTitle=contenido-pronostico-subestacional&p_p_id=101&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_mode=view&p_p_state=maximized
For the period September 21 to October 18, 2026, Costa Rica's National Meteorological Institute (IMN) forecasts below-normal rainfall across the Pacific slope, Central Valley, and Northwestern Zone, driven by trade winds unusually stronger than typical for this time of year - an atypical pattern consistent with the rainfall deficit El Nino has been driving across Central America during 2026. The Caribbean and Northern Zone would remain rainy through the second half of September before returning to normal conditions in October.
IMN Costa Rica (2026)
Instituto Meteorologico Nacional (IMN) de Costa Rica. (2026, September). Pronostico subestacional: valido del 21 de setiembre al 18 de octubre de 2026. https://www.imn.ac.cr/web/imn/busqueda?_101_assetEntryId=564589&_101_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_type=content&_101_urlTitle=contenido-pronostico-subestacional&p_p_id=101&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_mode=view&p_p_state=maximized
413 floods were recorded during the 2026 rainy season, making them the most frequently reported event among the 1,513 emergencies handled by the CONRED System.
CONRED (2026)
Secretaría Ejecutiva de la Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres. (2026, 16 de septiembre). Ambiente cálido y lluvias continuarán: evitemos que la basura obstruya los drenajes [Boletín Informativo 293-2026]. https://conred.gob.gt/ambiente-calido-y-lluvias-continuaran-evitemos-que-la-basura-obstruya-los-drenajes/
1,513 emergencies were handled by the CONRED System in Guatemala during the 2026 rainy season.
CONRED (2026)
Secretaría Ejecutiva de la Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres. (2026, 16 de septiembre). Ambiente cálido y lluvias continuarán: evitemos que la basura obstruya los drenajes [Boletín Informativo 293-2026]. https://conred.gob.gt/ambiente-calido-y-lluvias-continuaran-evitemos-que-la-basura-obstruya-los-drenajes/
194,176 people throughout Guatemala were affected by emergencies handled during the 2026 rainy season.
CONRED (2026)
Secretaría Ejecutiva de la Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres. (2026, 16 de septiembre). Ambiente cálido y lluvias continuarán: evitemos que la basura obstruya los drenajes [Boletín Informativo 293-2026]. https://conred.gob.gt/ambiente-calido-y-lluvias-continuaran-evitemos-que-la-basura-obstruya-los-drenajes/
The share of the United States and Puerto Rico in drought grew by 12.2 percentage points over the past month, reaching 49.77% as of September 15, 2026 (59.37% across the Lower 48 states); the affected population grew 11.2% over the same period, to 103.5 million people, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
U.S. Drought Monitor / Drought.gov (2026)
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). (2026, September 15). National Current Conditions. Drought.gov. https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
Flash drought continues to worsen across the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi River Basin, and this week began affecting parts of the Southeastern United States as well, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (week of September 9-15, 2026). Conditions improved in the Midwest and showed little change in the West.
U.S. Drought Monitor / Drought.gov (2026)
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). (2026, September 15). National Current Conditions. Drought.gov. https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
Coastal El Niño is expected to continue until mid-autumn 2027, with the highest probability of reaching extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027; between February and March it would remain between strong and extraordinary.
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN, 2026)
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno “El Niño” (ENFEN). (2026, 14 de septiembre). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.º 16-2026. Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE). https://repositorio.imarpe.gob.pe/items/d1eadaba-d087-487e-a0a2-9f894e37a9f1/full
48% is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude during December 2026-March 2027 in Peru, while the probability of strong magnitude is 45% and moderate magnitude is 7%.
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN, 2026)
Comisión Multisectorial encargada del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno “El Niño” (ENFEN). (2026, 14 de septiembre). Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N.º 16-2026. Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE). https://repositorio.imarpe.gob.pe/items/d1eadaba-d087-487e-a0a2-9f894e37a9f1/full
