El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), alters oceanic and atmospheric conditions and can affect rainfall and temperature patterns across different regions. Its effects on agrifood systems may include droughts, floods, water stress, and disruptions to marine ecosystems, with consequences for production, markets, and livelihoods.

The magnitude of these impacts depends not only on the intensity of the phenomenon, but also on the exposure, vulnerabilities, and response capacities of each territory. Understanding these relationships helps anticipate risks and identify priorities for prevention and adaptation.

From the climate phenomenon to its impacts on agrifood systems

Exploring the context from different perspectives

PAESA indicators make it possible to examine economic and productive conditions, adaptation capacities, and trade linkages that may amplify or mitigate the effects of El Niño.

01 · Economic and Agricultural Context

How does agricultural activity perform relative to the overall economy?

Compare, by country, annual changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and agricultural value added. The shaded bands identify periods associated with El Niño episodes, making it possible to explore differences in the behavior of both variables without directly attributing economic fluctuations to the climate phenomenon.

The results illustrate the diversity of experiences across the Americas. In El Salvador, where territories within the Central American Dry Corridor are particularly exposed to drought, agricultural value added contracted by 5.5% in 2015 and grew by 8.3% in 2016, during the 2015–2016 El Niño episode. In the Caribbean, Jamaica recorded 12.9% growth in agricultural value added in 2016. In the Southern Cone, Argentina experienced a 23.4% decline in 2023, followed by a 30.8% rebound in 2024. Meanwhile, in the Andean region, Peru moved from a 3.7% contraction in 2023 to 5.9% growth in 2024.

These contrasts highlight the heterogeneity of agricultural performance across countries and periods. Although some coincide with El Niño episodes, the observed changes also reflect other climatic, productive, and economic factors and therefore cannot, on their own, be interpreted as impacts attributable to the phenomenon.

What do studies reveal about past and future economic impacts?

Changes in GDP and agricultural value added during El Niño episodes can reveal patterns in economic performance, but cannot, by themselves, establish causal relationships. It is therefore important to identify and systematically document studies that provide statistical or scientific evidence on the effects of the phenomenon on economic activity, particularly those estimating impacts on GDP, economic losses, growth rates, and prices. Research quantifying the consequences of droughts and floods is also relevant, even when these events have not been specifically attributed to El Niño.

PAESA enables users to explore this evidence, which is updated regularly, through its searchable repository of research findings and documented results. For example, users can search for keywords such as "GDP" or "inflation" and combine them with tags such as "ElNiño", "Droughts", and "Floods". Advanced search options allow results to be filtered by sector, country, and other dimensions. Evidence records provide access to original sources and help distinguish observed impacts, economic estimates, and prospective scenarios.

The evidence compiled helps quantify the economic consequences of past climate-related events and explore the potential impacts of future events. For example, agricultural sector losses in Uruguay associated with the 2022–2023 water deficit were estimated at USD 1,741 million, equivalent to 3% of recent average GDP. Regarding the effects of El Niño on economic activity, an IMF study estimated cumulative losses of approximately 1% of GDP by the sixth quarter following a strong El Niño episode for a group of Central American and Andean countries.

Searching for inflation reveals additional channels through which economic impacts are transmitted, particularly through food prices. In Colombia, Abril-Salcedo and colleagues (2020) estimated a cumulative response of approximately 7.3 percentage points in food inflation between the fifth and ninth months following an El Niño-related shock. For Peru, Aguirre and colleagues (2025) estimated that, one year after an El Niño episode, the consumer price index could be approximately 4% higher than in the counterfactual scenario. However, findings are not uniform: an Inter-American Development Bank study on Ecuador found no statistically significant recent effects on inflation.

Research also helps anticipate risks. For example, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru estimated that a weak coastal El Niño episode could reduce economic growth in 2026 by 0.1 percentage points, while other studies identify potentially much larger impacts under more intense scenarios. Similarly, estimates of inflationary effects help assess how climate-related shocks may affect food prices and, in turn, purchasing power, food security, and household well-being.

These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing observed losses, estimated effects, and projections conditional on different scenarios, as well as changes in GDP, inflation rates, and price levels. They also show that economic consequences depend on the intensity of the phenomenon, productive structures, and the vulnerability conditions of individual countries.

PAESA's evidence repository complements the indicators presented above by moving beyond the identification of economic trends toward a more evidence-based understanding of the impacts of climate-related phenomena, their transmission channels, and their implications for public policy and investment decisions.

02 · Climate Vulnerability and Readiness

An important dimension in understanding the potential effects of El Niño is the degree of countries' vulnerability and readiness to address climate-related risks. Although these conditions do not, by themselves, determine the impacts of any particular episode, they provide a useful indication of the context in which such impacts may occur and the capacities available to respond. The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index, developed by the University of Notre Dame, provides a comparative assessment based on two complementary dimensions: vulnerability to climate change, which considers exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and readiness, which reflects the economic, institutional, and social conditions that facilitate investment and adaptation efforts. The composite index is expressed on a scale from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating relatively more favorable conditions.

The map highlights important differences among countries across the Americas. For example, in 2023, Canada recorded approximately 68 points, Costa Rica 54, Mexico 48, and Bolivia 43. These contrasts reflect different combinations of vulnerability and readiness, helping explain why countries may face different circumstances when confronted with climate-related hazards such as droughts, floods, and other disturbances associated with El Niño. The map's colors facilitate regional comparisons using intervals defined by PAESA, which do not represent official ND-GAIN categories.

The dashboard allows users to select a country and explore changes in its index between 2016 and 2023, identifying changes in its score and comparing its situation with that of other countries in the region. Changes may be gradual and may not necessarily result in a different color category. This perspective complements the analysis of economic and agricultural performance by providing information on the structural conditions that may influence countries' capacity to anticipate, respond to, and adapt to climate-related risks.

03 · Social Context

The social dimension is also important when examining the potential impacts of El Niño, as social conditions and vulnerabilities can significantly influence their severity across countries. One relevant approach is to examine vulnerability to food insecurity. Countries with higher levels of food insecurity vulnerability may experience more severe consequences from extreme climate events, particularly when these conditions coincide with greater environmental vulnerability, as discussed in the preceding section.

Explore the following map showing the food insecurity vulnerability index developed by IICA, which ..... It allows users to compare relative vulnerability across Latin America and the Caribbean and other regions, as well as examine how it has evolved over time.

A preliminary assessment of the 2024 results indicates that .....

Comparing the two dimensions—food insecurity vulnerability and climate resilience, as presented above—may help identify countries such as x1 and x2 that could be more exposed to the impacts of El Niño than other countries, such as .....

Examine the policy frameworks, institutional arrangements, prevention and response measures, and public investment initiatives implemented across countries and territories.

Highlight priorities for action, coordination needs, technical cooperation opportunities, and potential interventions or investments to strengthen anticipatory action, adaptation, and resilience