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Impact of the Armed Conflict on Fertilizer Prices.

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Short-term available stock

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Argentina currently has 30–60 days of fertilizer coverage, allowing the wheat campaign to begin without immediate problems (La Nación, 2026).

La Nación. (2026, marzo 30). Guerra en Medio Oriente: en el país hay stock de fertilizantes para cubrir entre 30 y 60 días. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/guerra-en-medio-oriente-en-el-pais-hay-stock-de-fertilizantes-para-cubrir-entre-30-y-60-dias-nid30032026/

La Nación

Tariff reduction

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

0% is the temporary tariff applied to the import of fertilizers to lower agricultural production costs in Brazil (Agrolatam, 2026).

Agrolatam. (2026). Brasil prepara un plan de 2.900 millones de dólares y elimina aranceles para fertilizantes en medio de la crisis global. https://www.agrolatam.com/actualidad-latam/brasil-plan-2900-millones-aranceles-fertilizantes-agro/

AgroLatam

External dependence of the country

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

85% of the fertilizers used in Brazil are imported, which explains the high exposure to international shocks (Agrolatam, 2026).

Agrolatam. (2026). Brasil prepara un plan de 2.900 millones de dólares y elimina aranceles para fertilizantes en medio de la crisis global. https://www.agrolatam.com/actualidad-latam/brasil-plan-2900-millones-aranceles-fertilizantes-agro/

AgroLatam

Increased fertilizer prices

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Fertilizer prices have increased by up to 30% in some markets due to the global crisis (Mundoagro, 2026).

Mundoagro. (2026). El impacto por región y los riesgos de la crisis global de fertilizantes para la fruticultura. https://mundoagro.io/cl/el-impacto-por-region-y-los-riesgos-de-la-crisis-global-de-fertilizantes-para-la-fruticultura/

Mundoagro. (2026)

Potential reduction of applications

30/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Fertilizer applications in some crops could decrease by up to 25% due to rising prices (Mundoagro, 2026).

Mundoagro. (2026). El impacto por región y los riesgos de la crisis global de fertilizantes para la fruticultura. https://mundoagro.io/cl/el-impacto-por-region-y-los-riesgos-de-la-crisis-global-de-fertilizantes-para-la-fruticultura/

Mundoagro. (2026)

Increased logistics costs

29/03/2026 Go to Evidence

The cost of sending a container to the Middle East reached $7,500, after tripling due to the conflict (Infobae, 2026).

Infobae. (2026, marzo 29). El conflicto en Irán agrava la crisis de los agricultores de California. https://www.infobae.com/estados-unidos/2026/03/29/el-conflicto-en-iran-agrava-la-crisis-de-los-agricultores-de-california/

Infobae

Increased fertilizer use

29/03/2026 Go to Evidence

The price of fertilizers increased by up to a third in one month due to the conflict (Infobae, 2026).

Infobae. (2026, marzo 29). El conflicto en Irán agrava la crisis de los agricultores de California. https://www.infobae.com/estados-unidos/2026/03/29/el-conflicto-en-iran-agrava-la-crisis-de-los-agricultores-de-california/

Infobae

Support plan for the sector

25/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Brazil will allocate $2.9 billion to a new plan to reduce the impact of rising fertilizer prices on agriculture (Agrolatam, 2026).

Agrolatam. (2026). Brasil prepara un plan de 2.900 millones de dólares y elimina aranceles para fertilizantes en medio de la crisis global. https://www.agrolatam.com/actualidad-latam/brasil-plan-2900-millones-aranceles-fertilizantes-agro/

AgroLatam

Collapse of fertilizer shipments through Hormuz

24/03/2026 Go to Evidence

Fertilizer-related outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to their lowest level since January 2026 following Iran's announcement of the strait's closure on 2 March 2026.

AXSMarine (Signal Group) & World Trade Organization. (2026). Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker. WTO Data Lab.

World Trade Organization (2026)

Fall in European production

23/03/2026 Go to Evidence

European ammonia production is 19% below 2019 levels (Plataforma Tierra, 2026).

Plataforma Tierra. (2026). El mercado mundial de fertilizantes en 2026: geopolítica y tensiones en la oferta. https://www.plataformatierra.es/mercados/mercado-mundial-fertilizantes-2026-geopolitica

Plataforma Tierra. (2026